SWODY3
SPC AC 080728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED APR 08 2009
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE OH/TN
VLYS SWWD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LVL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE MID/LWR MS VLY EARLY FRIDAY WILL
DAMPEN OVER THE APLCN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES
OF UPR SYSTEMS DIGS INTO SRN CA/DESERT SW. SFC LOW ATTENDANT WITH
THE LEAD TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE OH RVR FROM SRN IL TO SRN OH BY
00Z SATURDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE VA MOUNTAINS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. TRAILING THE LOW...A CDFNT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BEGIN TO STALL OVER DIXIE
AND SERN TX.
...OH/TN VLYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH...
AT LEAST ISOLD SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND LWR MS VLY...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW/CDFNT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE ENE DURING
THE MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL PCPN-INDUCED MOISTENING AND STRONG LLVL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE A LARGE REGION AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING UPR SYSTEM DURING THE AFTN. SFC-BASED TSTMS SHOULD
INITIATE BY MID-AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS...NAMELY FROM ALONG THE OH RVR SWD INTO THE TN VLY.
THOUGH THE MID-LVL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...PRESENCE OF
MODEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP 30 KTS OF WSW H85 FLOW WILL PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS
AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENE TO THE
CNTRL APLCNS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS SMALL-SCALE LEWPS/BOWS GIVING
AT LEAST ISOLD SVR WIND PROSPECTS TO THE E OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO SRN
VA.
FARTHER S...LARGER SCALE SUPPORT BEGINS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
AFTN...BUT PERSISTENT LLVL MOISTURE FLUX AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR ISOLD-WDLY SCTD TSTMS ALONG THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE CDFNT FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD INTO LA. SRN
FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONTINUAL FEED OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE WEST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY ENE TOWARD PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THE LLVLS WILL MOISTEN THAT
FAR NE...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST AN ISOLD THREAT OF SVR STORMS.
...CSTL TX...
TAIL-END OF THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY BE IMPETUS FOR ISOLD
TSTMS AS CAP IS BREACHED ALONG THE SERN TX CST ON FRIDAY AFTN/EARLY
EVE. ROUGHLY 40-45 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND H5-H7 LAPSE RATES OF
7.5-8 DEG C PER KM WILL RESULT IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/ROTATION WITH
LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.
..RACY.. 04/08/2009
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