SWOD48
SPC AC 160848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD AN ERN U.S.
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN U.S.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON INTENSITY AND EVOLUTION...AS
ONE MIGHT EXPECT...BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE FACT
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL BE NOTED IN THE DAY1-3 TIME
FRAME ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DISRUPTIONS...SEVERE PREDICTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED IN BOTH SPACE
AND TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT LARGE SCALE MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW
WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN U.S.
EAST OF THE MS RIVER...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY OVERTURN A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE BE AVAILABLE
FOR ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
INFLOW/INSTABILITY WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE IN THE DAY4-8 TIME
FRAME.
..DARROW.. 04/16/2009
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