SWOD48
SPC AC 240855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LONG RANGE MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF...UKMET...GFS AND MREF ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS THROUGH DAY 6. CONSENSUS IS THAT CUTOFF LOW WILL
EVOLVE OVER WRN STATES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EJECT
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY MONDAY.
DAY 4...CONSENSUS IS THAT COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO GREAT
LAKES...MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY
INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY ALONG SRN END OF FRONT OR MCS ACROSS A PART
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR WILL BE GREATER. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IMPOSED BY
LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A
THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND
MS VALLEY REGION MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A RISK AREA IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.
DAY5-7...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW
OVER THE WRN STATES. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIST
OVER THE PLAINS DURING OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREATS WILL BE MODULATED IN PART BY A SERIES OF
IMPULSES THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. WILL REFRAIN FROM
DELINEATING A THREAT AREA THIS OUTLOOK DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT DAYS WILL POSE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREATS.
ONE OR MORE RISK AREAS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED...HOWEVER...IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
..DIAL.. 04/24/2009
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