SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052102
ALZ000-FLZ000-052200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT SUN APR 05 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052102Z - 052200Z
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS COULD INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
MINOR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COULD HINDER MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED INTO EARLY EVENING FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW
POINTS AROUND 70 DEG F ACROSS MOST OF SRN AL S OF RESIDUAL WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BISECTING AL FROM PICKENS TO HOUSTON
COUNTIES. A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF
A N/S ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING THE MS/AL BORDER. GIVEN
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /AROUND 60 KTS/ AND THE WARM/MOIST AIR
MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...POTENTIAL
CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ATTENDANT SEVERE
THREATS. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS IN THE NEAR-TERM
AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER WHETHER SEVERE TSTMS CAN DEVELOP
AND BECOME SUSTAINED.
..GRAMS.. 04/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 32768627 31858516 31288524 30958595 30838679 31078783
31558810 32428755 32818692 32768627
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