SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102042
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-102145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY / NERN TN / SRN WV / WRN VA / NWRN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102042Z - 102145Z
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE E OF WW 133 INTO PARTS OF SRN WV
WRN VA AND NWRN NC. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS EXPANSIVE MCS OVER PARTS OF ERN TN/KY. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF LINE IN ERN KY AND POSE A
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR TORNADO/S BEFORE AND DURING MERGER INTERACTION
WITH MCS. FURTHER S OVER THE CUMBERLAND GAP...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
IN A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 J/KG SBCAPE/ DESPITE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F/. RECENTLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OVER MITCHELL COUNTY NC WILL LIKELY
POSE AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT...AS KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH A WW POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED
DOWNSTREAM OF WW 133 PRIOR TO 22Z.
..SMITH.. 04/10/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
LAT...LON 38008383 38368266 38358133 38138079 37588012 37048001
36708023 35958119 35838207 36638356 37098390 38008383
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