SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132252
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...PORTIONS OF SRN TN/NWRN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 151...
VALID 132252Z - 132345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 151 CONTINUES.
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY POSE A SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INTO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL TORNADIC POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED...BUT
A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A REPLACEMENT SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING
CONSIDERED FOR THE REGION.
RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN A CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM S-CNTRL MS NEWD TOWARD THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN ERN TN. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS/18Z JAN RAOB
SUGGEST THAT TOTAL CAPE WILL BE LIMITED BY MID-LEVEL INVERSION
BETWEEN 600-500 MB...AND THIS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE WHAT MIGHT
OTHERWISE BE A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG
SPEED SHEAR /WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60 KT/ AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH
ATTENDANT THREATS FOR SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. STRAIGHT-LINE
HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SPLITTING CELLS...AS EVIDENCED
BY AN EARLIER SPLIT AND LEFT-MOVING CELL NOW ENTERING WALKER COUNTY
AL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY
MODEST/UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO COULD EXIST OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOWER.
..GRAMS.. 04/13/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 35318609 35808510 35698447 35268430 34888479 34248559
33818622 33108734 32898814 33088868 33808844 34908671
35318609
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