MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0480

ACUS11 KWNS 152141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152141
COZ000-152315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CDT WED APR 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152141Z - 152315Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE SWD THROUGH ERN CO...WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS NOTED OVER LINCOLN AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES CO
AS OF 2125Z. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING E OF A LEE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

GIVEN THE CLOCKWISE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE BELOW 700 MB AND
30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION DESPITE THE MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..MEAD.. 04/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37310332 38780327 39640364 40440370 40810339 40600272
39950224 39540213 38910216 37910217 37230231 37070274
37310332

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