SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162053
TXZ000-162200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX SOUTH PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155...
VALID 162053Z - 162200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155
CONTINUES.
POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE AND POSSIBLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OVER SRN PORTIONS WW AREA...SWD TOP NEAR I-20
ENE OF MAF. TORNADO WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THIS REGION...WHICH
WOULD REPRESENT UPGRADE AND NEW WW NUMBER FOR THOSE OVERLAPPING
COUNTIES ALREADY IN WW 155.
SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SHARPENING PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL ZONE AND CONFLUENCE BAND FROM COKE COUNTY NWWD BETWEEN
BPG-SNK...INTERSECTING DRYLINE OVER DAWSON COUNTY. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD DRIFT NWD...AMIDST NEARLY UNCAPPED MLCAPE NEAR 2000
J/KG...AND SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR DRYLINE TO RETREAT WWD SOME
MORE. AIR MASS ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY
LOWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...LOWER LCL...AS WELL AS MORE BACKED/ELY
SFC WINDS THAT YIELD STRONGER 0-1 KM SRH AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.
LBB VWP INDICATES EARLIER RELATIVE WEAKNESSES IN LOW LEVEL FLOW
ABOVE BACKED SFC WINDS ARE WEAKENING AS TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT E AHEAD OF 4-CORNERS UPPER CYCLONE...A TREND
THAT IS NOT YET MANIFEST AT JTN PROFILER FARTHER E. PRIND LOW-LEVEL
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN SLOWLY WITH TIME THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON...AND THAT HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN LARGEST ALONG
AND N OF WARM FRONT. THICKENING SHALLOW CONVECTION EVIDENT IN VIS
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TSTMS MAY DEVELOP S OF BOUNDARY AND MOVE
NWD...ANY OF WHICH COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY UPON INTERACTING WITH
MESOBETA SCALE FRONTAL ZONE.
..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32100087 32400195 33220223 34050203 34530153 34670099
34370035 32540032 32100087
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