MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0487

ACUS11 KWNS 162333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162333
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-170100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PNHDL INTO WRN PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155...

VALID 162333Z - 170100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155
CONTINUES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS CURRENTLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN PART OF WW
AREA...NAMELY HARTLEY...OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE U.S. 287/I-27
CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

FAIRLY RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
ACROSS HARTLEY...OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES IN THE WRN TX PNHDL.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE THE
RESULT OF WWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGING WITH STATIONARY
DRYLINE AND/OR PACIFIC COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE ERN NM
PLAINS. MOREOVER...BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM SUSTENANCE OWING TO INCREASED
HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC COOLING IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH ERN NM.

RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE
ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE THE COOL CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE
OF AROUND 500 J/KG. GIVEN THE RAPID TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LINEAR
CONFIGURATION...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE
NOT FORECAST TO ADVANCE MUCH FARTHER E INTO WRN TX...THE CONTINUED
NEWD TRANSLATION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY PROMOTE THE EWD
MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING STORMS TOWARD THE U.S. 287/I-27
CORRIDORS THROUGH 01-02Z.

..MEAD.. 04/16/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37010304 37009997 34749997 34720253 32910259 32930306
37010304

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