SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182214
OKZ000-TXZ000-182345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK THROUGH N CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168...
VALID 182214Z - 182345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL OK AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MID EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A MESO-LOW IN NWRN OK
SSEWD THROUGH N CNTRL TX NEAR STEPHENVILLE. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DESTABILIZED IN A CORRIDOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM N CNTRL TX NWD
THROUGH CNTRL OK. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE FROM
500-1000 J/KG AND STEEP 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL RESULTING FROM COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH -16C TO -18C AT 500 MB. TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN AN INCREASE IN MULTILAYER CLOUDS ACROSS WRN OK INDICATIVE OF A
BAND OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL OK AND N CNTRL TX NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER ASCENT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. A 50+ KT
SWLY MID LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY.
..DIAL.. 04/18/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 36909638 35579588 33669619 32809692 32909759 34729782
36749836 36909638
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