Friday, April 24, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0553

ACUS11 KWNS 242231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242231
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-250000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN SC AND SRN/SERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242231Z - 250000Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SC INTO SRN NC...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE JUNCTION OF THE WRN COASTAL PLAIN AND ERN PIEDMONT REGION.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE SC/NC COMBINED
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S HAS RESULTED IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE LACK OF
A DISCERNIBLE MID LEVEL IMPULSE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN GA NEWD TO 45 SE CLT TO RDU AND A WWD
MOVING SEA BREEZE ARE ACTING AS FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 25 KT
NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP GENERALLY WEAK SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT...SUFFICIENT
FOR MULTICELLS OR EVEN A SUPERCELL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
BOTH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A MID LEVEL FEATURE/FORCING FOR ASCENT TO SUPPORT GREATER
STORM COVERAGE...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED.

..PETERS.. 04/24/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 33668143 34218089 34888029 35147966 35597897 35547827
35137806 34587866 33927956 33318064 32998120 32938160
33248183 33668143

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