SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242251
PAZ000-NYZ000-242345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/WRN NY AND PARTS OF NWRN/NORTH CENTRAL PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 242251Z - 242345Z
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EWD ACROSS SWRN/WRN NY...WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NWRN/NORTH CENTRAL PA.
SINCE 22Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A FEW TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED
ACROSS FAR SWRN NY...S OF BUF. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRACKING EWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO...AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION
OF AN ACCOMPANYING 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /35-50 KT/ IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY...AND STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK EWD INTO CENTRAL
NY WHERE LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY IS OBSERVED. GIVEN THIS
LIMITATION...A WW IS NOT WARRANTED.
..PETERS.. 04/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 41637950 42367912 43097843 43177771 43027723 42387725
41527759 41187804 41087889 41267936 41637950
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