SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242301
KSZ000-250000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NCNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 242301Z - 250000Z
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER WRN INTO NCNTRL
KS DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW.
SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 22Z PLACES A 999 MB LOW INVOF
LAA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING E-NEWD TOWARD NCNTRL KS...AND THEN
WWD INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA. A HOT WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED NE ALONG THE FRONT...AUGMENTING CAP REMOVAL IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. CU HAS DEVELOPED
WITHIN THIS REGION AS A RESULT...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE
TO GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/FORCING.
AIRMASS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NCNTRL KS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...WHILE 40S DEWPOINTS RESIDE WITHIN POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER WRN KS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP MID
LVL LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
NCNTRL KS AND AROUND 500-1000 J/KG FARTHER WEST. IF A STORM OR TWO
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING...THE STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR ALONG AND TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WOULD FAVOR
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..GARNER.. 04/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38070125 38640189 38980164 39180055 39569924 39889853
39869778 39469771 38579886 38209978 38060033 38070125
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