SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262244
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-262345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN KS...CENTRAL/WRN OK...NW
TX...AND ERN TX PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190...192...
VALID 262244Z - 262345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 190...192...CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING HAIL -- WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREAS PAST
SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATION TIME FOR WW 190...AND PROBABLY WELL PAST
03Z EXPIRATION OF WW 192. THEREFORE...WE ARE PLANNING TO REPLACE WW
190 AND AT LEAST SOME OF 192 WITH ONE CONSOLIDATED/PDS TORNADO WATCH
THAT WILL GO PAST MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. HASKELL/THROCKMORTON COUNTIES
TX -- IN WFO SJT JURISDICTION -- ARE BEING SWITCHED FROM WW 192 TO
WW 193.
DAMAGING TORNADO ALREADY HAS BEEN OBSERVED BY MEDIA AND CHASERS WITH
EARLIER STORM IN NW OK NOW MOVING INTO WOODWARD COUNTY...AND
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MORE OF THESE WITH ANY
RELATIVELY DISCRETE STORMS WHOSE INFLOW IS NOT TOO DISRUPTED BY
OTHER ACTIVITY. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITH
PRONOUNCED/DISCRETE SUPERCELL IN SW OK...THAT SHOULD MOVE FROM FDR
AREA NEWD TOWARD CADDO COUNTY DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX AND
MOVE NEWD AS WELL...WITH MIX OF LINEAR...EMBEDDED-SUPERCELL AND BOW
MODES. MODIFIED RAOBS...VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALL
INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR REMAINING QUITE FAVORABLE AND
REACTIVELY MAXIMIZED OVER WRN OK...EXTREME S-CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS
NW TX SW OF CDS -- E.G. 0-1 KM SRH 300-500 J/KG. VERTICAL
VEER/BACK/VEER PROFILE THAT HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILES ACROSS
THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LINEAR
TENDENCIES...BUT IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE CLASSICALLY VEERING WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRESSURE FALLS ANALYZED
ACROSS NRN TX PANHANDLE...ERN OK PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS INDICATE SFC
FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY BACKED OVER THIS REGION...KEEPING
HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED. NEARLY UNCAPPED AIR MASS WITH 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH EVENING HOURS AS LOSS OF MIXING
AND MOIST ADVECTION EACH KEEP EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS NEARLY
SFC-BASED.
..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...
AMA...
LAT...LON 35860053 37319900 38739755 38049630 36569698 35369675
33899799 33019916 33020078 34610054 35860053
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