SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272208
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-272345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...EXTREME WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272208Z - 272345Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NERN
AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...AND EXTREME WRN KY...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NERN AR HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING DURING THE LAST HR. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE
WRN FRINGES OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION...AND NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN /PER GPS
TPW GUIDANCE/...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. DUE TO
RELATIVELY MARGINAL MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES WILL BE LIMITED TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION APPARENT DUE TO ONLY GLANCING BLOW OF UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF 110 KT ULJ LIFTING N THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND AREA VWP DATA
INDICATE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND LACK OF
PROMINENT FORCING...THE SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON /PERHAPS LIMITED TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL LINE SEGMENTS/...AND A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..GARNER.. 04/27/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 34939202 36279126 37788958 37928878 37298876 35479037
34919097 34939202
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