Monday, April 27, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0610

ACUS11 KWNS 272330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272330
LAZ000-TXZ000-280130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...EXTREME SWRN LA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...

VALID 272330Z - 280130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203 CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF SVR/QUASI-LINEAR MCS NOW EXHIBITING NET
MOTION SEWD 20-25 KT. TORNADO THREAT WW SHOULD BE CLEARED BEHIND
THIS COMPLEX...GIVEN STG LEADING-EDGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MESOHIGH
ANALYZED TO ITS N...AND RESULTANT DISRUPTION OF BOTH SHEAR AND
BUOYANCY BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTION.

SVR AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH MCS MAY EXTEND EWD ALONG COASTAL
COUNTIES TOWARD SABINE PASS AREA. SVR GUST MEASURED 50 KT AT VCT
DURING PAST HOUR...AND RAIN RATES TO 3 INCHES/HOUR WILL REMAIN
COMMON. GIVEN NARROW LAND AREA AFFECTED AND FCST LOSS OF SFC
HEATING -- EVENTUALLY REDUCING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY -- WHOLE NEW WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. HOWEVER...AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT...A
FEW ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE TACKED ONTO ERN EDGE OF WW 203 IN WFO
HGX DOMAIN...AS WITH LIBERTY COUNTY ALREADY. ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR -- WITH SELY/ONSHORE SFC WINDS TRANSPORTING PW TO 1.75 INCH
BASED ON GPS READINGS AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL REMAIN STG...BETWEEN THOSE SE WINDS AND
30-40 KT SLY-SSWLY LLJ EVIDENT IN HGX/CRP VWP. THIS SHOULD AID BOTH
IN POTENTIAL FOR MESOCYCLONIC SPINUPS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
MCS...AND IN PRECIP EFFICIENCY AS SLAB OF MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR IS
FORCED ABOVE COLD POOL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...

LAT...LON 28179735 29129597 29639549 30349510 30509474 30289341
29789313 29669384 29659408 29399471 29289470 29089512
28739560 28349641 28049685 27729712 28179735

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