MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0634

ACUS11 KWNS 292217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292217
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WRN KS...WRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 213...

VALID 292217Z - 292345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 213 CONTINUES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
AND SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF WW 213. A FEW TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WATCH MAY BE LOCALLY EXPANDED
TO COVER PARTS OF SW OK.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE IN WEST TX ON THE CAPROCK WITH A
MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE. THE STORMS
ARE LOCATED ON THE NRN END OF THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THIS MORNINGS MCS. THE STORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING ON THE NERN EDGE OF A DRY SLOT AND SHOULD REMAIN INTENSE
MOVING NEWD INTO SWRN OK WHERE MLCAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG AND
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT ACCORDING TO THE RUC. IN
ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER NORTH TX IS FORECAST BY SHORT-TERM
MODELS TO EXPAND NWD INTO WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS ONGOING IN THE TX PANHANDLE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SW KS...LESS MOISTURE IS PRESENT AND THE RUC
SUGGESTS VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER. HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXISTS FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD LIKELY
BE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THIS THREAT COULD EXPAND ENEWD
INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF WW 213 BY EARLY TO MID EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 04/29/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33840002 33830206 34340212 34350198 34750197 34740216
36470218 36480300 37610303 37640272 38260269 38230353
38520354 38530318 38610318 38610203 38690203 38690026
37470022 37460010 37000009 36999995 33820003 33840002

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.