Sunday, May 10, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110100
SWODY1
SPC AC 110057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN
MS/SOUTHERN AL...

...LA TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL...
SMALL MCS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MS INTO ADJACENT
SOUTHERN AL. THIS MCS APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY EARLY DAY MCV AND
EXISTING SURFACE COLD POOL...BUT NEVERTHELESS A DIMINISHING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCUR THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING OWING TO A GRADUALLY
STABILIZING NEAR-SURFACE INFLOW LAYER. FARTHER WEST...OTHER TRAILING
STORMS ALONG EFFECTIVE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN LA
MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SHORT TERM HAIL/DOWNBURST RISK BEFORE
WEAKENING.

...SOUTHEAST GA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN SC...
ONGOING PULSE-TYPE STORMS ACROSS SC...AND AN MCV/COLD POOL AIDED
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT MAINLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD OTHERWISE WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND/OR QUICKLY EXIT
THE COAST.

...TX PANHANDLE/NORTH TX AND OK...
TSTMS SHOULD NOCTURNALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE/NORTH TX AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN HALVES OF OK WITHIN
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE AMIDST MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL...SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/AMPLE INSTABILITY
PER 00Z RAOBS FROM MAF/DFW/OUN/MAF...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT.

...SOUTHWEST TX...
LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE...SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST TX/BIG BEND REGION IN
VICINITY OF MOUNTAINS SHOULD TEND TO WANE/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MID EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GUYER.. 05/11/2009

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