SWODY1
SPC AC 150100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF WRN TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN KS...
...WRN TX...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A RETREATING SURFACE FRONT FROM
NORTH OF MIDLAND NEWD TO NEAR CHILDRESS. CUMULUS HAS BEEN INCREASING
ALONG THIS FEATURE. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE THE
FRONT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE JUST NORTH OF MIDLAND. DESPITE PRESENCE
OF A MODEST 700 MB CAPPING INVERSION...MIXING AND DESTABILIZATION OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WIND PROFILES ARE
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO WLY 25 KT AT 500 MB. STRENGTHENING OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET MAY FURTHER AUGMENT CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SWRN TX. TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25-30 DEGREES WILL SUPPORT
HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING.
...ERN KS...
WARM THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NWD DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
OK AND KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM ERN KS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS OK...SHOULD BECOME DEEP ENOUGH
TO WEAKEN CAP AND BRING PARCELS TO THEIR LFC. STORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE LAYER...BUT MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL.
..DIAL.. 05/15/2009
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