SWODY1
SPC AC 190054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2009
VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NERN ORE/SERN WA/W CENTRAL ID AND INTO MT...
STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT...BUT ISOLATED/STRONGER
CELLS ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR NERN ORE. HERE...AROUND 1000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE HAS DEVELOPED...WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION SUGGESTS THAT A
FEW STRONGER CELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL MAY EXIST INTO MID-EVENING...WARRANTING
THE INCLUSION OF 5% HAIL PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
...ELSEWHERE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S FL OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS RESULTED IN DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY...AND THUS LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS THIS
AREA.
A LACK OF PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION HAS PRECLUDED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. IN ANY
CASE...WEAK/ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT FOR
APPRECIABLE HAIL POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWWD INTO NM/AZ...AND
THEN INTO PARTS OF CA AND NV. OVERALL...WEAK/HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY
WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
SUGGESTS THAT ANY LINGERING/LOCAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED.
..GOSS.. 05/19/2009
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