Saturday, May 16, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170053
SWODY1
SPC AC 170050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN PA THROUGH NJ AND NRN
MD...

...NERN STATES...

BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM ERN NY SWWD THROUGH ERN PA INTO NRN
VA. STRONGER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES REMAIN FROM ERN PA...NJ THROUGH
ERN NY. STRONGEST CELLS REMAIN IN SERN PA PORTION OF LINE WHERE THE
BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXISTS /MLCAPE 500-1000
J/KG AND 35-40 KT BULK SHEAR/. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 02Z-03Z AS
STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINING WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

...SERN STATES...

SCATTERED PULSE/MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL UNTIL AROUND 02-03Z...BUT STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING.

..DIAL.. 05/17/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: