SWODY1
SPC AC 170458
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES DROP SEWD. A COLD
FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH THE NWRN GULF EARLY
SUNDAY WILL MOVE SEWD AND CLEAR ALL OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE FL
PENINSULA BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN
STATES.
...SRN GA THROUGH FL...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT
WITHIN MOIST PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...PRIMARILY FROM SRN GA THROUGH
FL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...6-6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS. SOME STORMS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
...SWRN STATES...
OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SWD ALONG
ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE MAY PROMOTE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND AZ. WEAK ELY-NELY MID-UPPER FLOW
WILL PROMOTE STORMS MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERT
VALLEYS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS SUGGEST
ISOLATED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
..DIAL.. 05/17/2009
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