SWODY1
SPC AC 181237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2009
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
GRT BASIN UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND E INTO THE PLNS THIS PERIOD
AS CLOSED LOW OFF THE BC CST MOVES TO NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND...AND
TROUGH NOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS MOVES OFF THE E CST. IN RESPONSE
TO SHORTWAVE WAVE IMPULSE NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST...
EXPECT SRN PART OF ERN TROUGH TO EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW OVER THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z TUE.
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SE ACROSS FL...WHILE
OVER THE NRN TIER A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE UPR MS
VLY/UPR GRT LKS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG DISTURBANCE CROSSING MB/WRN
ONT. FARTHER W...WRN EXTENSION OF SAME BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
QSTNRY OVER NW MT/SRN BC.
...CNTRL/S FL...
CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER SRN AND
E CNTRL FL TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING OF EXISTING STORMS ALONG FRONT...AND DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO ITS S AND E. ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES WILL
EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...FLOW MAGNITUDE WILL
REMAIN WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND HIGH PWS /AROUND 1.75 INCHES/...SETUP COULD YIELD WEAKLY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH WET MICROBURSTS AND SVR HAIL THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY.
...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG COLD FRONT OVER NERN MN...NRN
WI AND PERHAPS UPR MI LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVE AS REGION IS
GLANCED BY DPVA WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE N. ALTHOUGH LOW TO
MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
SBCAPE TO AOB 250 J/KG. MODERATE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY FLOW
MAY...HOWEVER...YIELD ISOLD STRONG GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS OF
HAIL.
...MT...
MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND S OF COLD FRONT
IN CNTRL MT. INCREASING ELY FLOW NEAR/JUST N OF THE FRONT...AND
RESULTING UPSLOPE...COULD ENHANCE EWD PROPAGATION OF
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN DEEPLY-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW MT. 40 KT MID LVL WLY
FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO FOSTER UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...
AND POSSIBLY STRONG SFC GUSTS...AND STORMS DEVELOP INTO SMALL
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS. HOWEVER...AS IN THE UPR MS
VLY...SPARSE MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR THREAT.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/18/2009
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