SWODY2
SPC AC 180548
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2009
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY...WHILE A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
FL. THE PRIMARY BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVERSPREADING QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
...NORTHERN ID/MUCH OF MT...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE VICINITY ON
TUESDAY...WHILE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MT HIGH PLAINS
BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WHILE THE PRE-COLD
FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST OR UNSTABLE...AMPLE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS AND DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPSWING IN ISOLATED TO
POTENTIALLY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE STEADILY EAST-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND
PERHAPS IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW/DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN MT PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND PW/S
WILL BE LIMITED...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT /50+ KT AT
500 MB/...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME WELL-ORGANIZED
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
...SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...
IN VICINITY OF A WEAKENING/STALLING FRONTAL ZONE...IT APPEARS THAT
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. AS SUCH...THE
DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED.
EVEN SO...RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -10C AT 500
MB/...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LATITUDE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST
OFF THE FL WEST COAST...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR A
HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...AND WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO TUESDAY.
..GUYER.. 05/18/2009
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