SWODY3
SPC AC 120729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX...
...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE CNTRL
STATES THURSDAY. IN THE SRN PLAINS...AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST EAST OF A DRYLINE FROM WEST TX EXTENDING
NNEWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT AS SFC TEMPS WARM UP WITH CONVECTION MOVING EWD INTO
INCREASING INSTABILITY. ONCE STORMS INITIATE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING HOW MANY STORMS WILL FORM
AND THE EXACT POSITION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ATTM...HAVE MADE THE
SLIGHT RISK SMALL AND FOCUSED ACROSS WEST TX WHERE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS EXISTS.
...GULF COAST/ARKLATEX...
SELY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES A OF
A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED IN THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS A WARM
SECTOR EXTENDING EWD FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO MS...AL AND GA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING. THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD LIKELY BE WIND DAMAGE WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT PERSIST
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE
STEEP.
..BROYLES.. 05/12/2009
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