SWODY3
SPC AC 170725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...WHILE A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR FLORIDA/S WEST COAST.
FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADING
QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
...NORTHERN ID AND MUCH OF MT...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE ON TUESDAY.
WHILE THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
MOIST...AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS AND
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPSWING IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
STEADILY EAST-ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ID INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL MT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT/STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME WELL-ORGANIZED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
...FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...
IN VICINITY OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT PLENTIFUL SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. AS SUCH...QUESTIONS EXIST
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-10C TO -12C AT 500
MB/ IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LATITUDE CLOSED UPPER LOW...LIKELY
TO BE JUST OFF THE FL PENINSULA WEST COAST...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR A HAIL/PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUST THREAT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.
..GUYER.. 05/17/2009
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