SWOD48
SPC AC 120853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A DEEPLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS OK AND KS
EXTENDING ENEWD INTO NWRN MO. IN ADDITION TO THE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/DAY 4. FOR THIS REASON...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS KS WHERE THE LATEST GFS
DEVELOPS AN MCS DURING THE EVENING. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH
STORMS WILL INITIATE TO JUSTIFY A SEVERE THREAT AREA FROM THE OK
PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY. BEYOND DAY
4...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES SUNDAY/DAY 6 INTO MONDAY/DAY 7. DUE TO THIS REASON...WILL NOT
ISSUE A SEVERE THREAT AREA BEYOND DAY 4.
..BROYLES.. 05/12/2009
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