SWOD48
SPC AC 150841
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET SEVERE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
CONUS. CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN NEXT
WEEK SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...NO 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
DAY 4/MONDAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHEAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH/JET
STREAK ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA...AND/OR PERHAPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN MT VIA AN UPSLOPE REGIME. FOR DAYS 5/6 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A FEW HIGH BASED SEVERE TSTMS/PERHAPS SUPERCELLS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF COLD
FRONT/LEE TROUGH AND/OR WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
REGIME INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT RANGE.
..GUYER.. 05/15/2009
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