SWOD48
SPC AC 200900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. WEAK SUMMER-LIKE
WESTERLIES...WITH STRONGEST FLOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
TIER...AND/OR LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.
A FEW BOUTS OF MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS
4-6/ WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME AND/OR ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. WITH MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGESTIVE OF AN AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND RESULTANT STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AROUND DAYS 6/7 MONDAY-TUESDAY
ALONG/AHEAD OF A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
..GUYER.. 05/20/2009
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