SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012311
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-020015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223...
VALID 012311Z - 020015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223
CONTINUES.
THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/DMGG WINDS REMAINS OVER WW223...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.
FAVORABLE MOISTURE/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOWLY SAGGING COLD FRONT...AND
AHEAD OF A SUBTLE VORT MAX...NOW NOTED ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE SWRN
MO/NWRN AR BORDER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING INTO SRN AR. THIS HAS LIKELY BRIEFLY
STABILIZED THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT IN THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH...SUPPORTED BY GENERAL NON-CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF CLOUDS AND
LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT STILL
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING VORT MAX...AND
AS THINNING CLOUD COVER ALLOWS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ONCE AGAIN.
GIVEN A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH
MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...PRIMARY THREATS OF DMGG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT.. 05/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35049443 36499440 36508831 35078831 35049443
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