MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0662

ACUS11 KWNS 020019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020019
OKZ000-TXZ000-020145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TX AND SRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 222...

VALID 020019Z - 020145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 222 CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST TX IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
REDEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 222 THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP AS MORE STORMS
INITIATE TO THE EAST. IN THE CASE OF NEW INITIATION...ANOTHER WATCH
MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF WW 222.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SWD ACROSS NW TX HELPING TO
WEAKEN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS. THIS
DECREASE IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE TEMPORARY. AS A RUC ANALYZED
VORTICITY MAX OVER NW TX MOVES EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING
AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD
REOCCUR ACROSS ERN PARTS OF WW 222 OR JUST AFTER WATCH EXPIRATION.
THIS NEW CLUSTER OF SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING IS
SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODELS. IN THIS CASE...THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A TORNADO WOULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IF SUPERCELL FORMATION RE-OCCURS. IF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME...THEN ANOTHER
WW WOULD PROBABLY BE NECESSARY IN AREAS ACROSS SE OK AND NORTHEAST
TX LATE THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 05/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 32519909 32490066 32950065 32970103 34280102 34330042
34730043 34750002 34499999 34509964 34749963 34719940
34839936 34869913 34689913 34679903 34579906 34589881
34879880 34859812 35389808 35379713 35529714 35479645
35329647 35299596 35039607 34689611 34719590 34599588
34619564 34509566 34499582 34179580 34179596 33959598
33909584 33429590 33349635 33429633 33419739 32989738
33019907 32519909

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