Monday, May 4, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0704

ACUS11 KWNS 042322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042321
SDZ000-NEZ000-050045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD AND NCNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042321Z - 050045Z

MEDICINE BOW WY PROFILER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW A
MID-LVL JET MAX OF 50+ KTS DIGGING SEWD INTO SWRN SD/NERN WY ALONG
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE VORT MAX OVER SWRN ND. LEFT-EXIT REGION ASCENT
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER CNTRL SD/NCNTRL NEB
LATE THIS AFTN...INVOF SFC TROUGH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A
VERY NARROW TONGUE OF SBCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AMIDST BULK SHEAR
OF 25-30 KTS. PARCEL TRAJECTORY FROM THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BOOST UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND A COUPLE OF STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER GIVEN THE MARGINALITY AND ISOLD NATURE TO THE
SVR POTENTIAL.

..RACY.. 05/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 41930045 43809931 45749947 45579863 43939786 42759800
41729949 41930045

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