SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102305
MSZ000-110030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286...
VALID 102305Z - 110030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286
CONTINUES.
SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR/NORTH THROUGH EAST OF VICKSBURG HAS
EXHIBITED RECENT SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY.
ACTIVITY APPEARS AIDED BY AN AREA OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE JUST SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF 30-35 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS MOMENTUM MAY COME TO CHARACTERIZE
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
ACTIVITY PROBABLY SPREADING ACROSS THE JACKSON AREA AROUND 00Z...
INTO THE VICINITY OF MERIDIAN BY 02Z. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE STORM CLUSTER REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS NEW UPDRAFTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ADVANCING COLD
POOL. THESE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL. WHILE...PEAK WINDS
ALONG THE DEVELOPING GUST FRONT MAY MOSTLY RANGE FROM 35-40 KT...A
FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS COULD AT LEAST APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA.
..KERR.. 05/10/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...
LAT...LON 32929026 33118987 33028909 32508856 32158867 31858897
31818990 32229066 32929026
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