SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110029
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-110130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AL/MS INTO E CNTRL LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286...
VALID 110029Z - 110130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286
CONTINUES.
AN ADDITIONAL WW OR EXTENSION OF CURRENT WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED
BY 01Z.
BENEATH A NARROW BELT OF 30-40 KT 500 MB FLOW...A SMALL BUT
ORGANIZED AND VIGOROUS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR INTO THE VICINITY
OF MERIDIAN BY 02Z. SYSTEM PROBABLY WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF A DOWNSTREAM STORM
CLUSTER...ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY
THROUGH THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME. DESPITE THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FEEDING THE STORM
CLUSTER...STORM-SCALE DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH PERHAPS THE CONTINUING
INFLUENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING...MAY DELAY WEAKENING
TRENDS ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE TRAILING FROM THE LEAD STORM CLUSTER
SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PROBABLY
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AFTER 02Z...ASSOCIATED BY TRAINING CELLS IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES.
..KERR.. 05/11/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 32468960 32528881 32408809 32298703 32098664 31618682
31358740 31338811 31398895 31328983 31199075 31179139
31609325 31649203 31789052 32468960
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