SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112315
LAZ000-120045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288...
VALID 112315Z - 120045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE COMING INCREASINGLY LOCALIZED. THE NEED
FOR A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UPON 01Z EXPIRATION OF WW 288.
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAXIMIZED TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF DECAYING STORM
CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG. AND...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF SCATTERED
RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND BATON ROUGE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
LOUISIANA TO THE WEST/NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. AS THIS OCCURS
...INTENSE UPDRAFTS MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. EVENTUALLY...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONG DOWNBURST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
LAKE...AS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHEASTWARD
STORM MOTION THROUGH 01-02Z.
..KERR.. 05/11/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30449113 30529049 30259026 29989021 29709042 29609104
29679163 29869196 29999204 30399203 30459148 30449113
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