SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132253
TXZ000-OKZ000-140000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY OF
TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 132253Z - 140000Z
AN ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ALONG SURFACE
DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY OF TX.
IF A TSTM CAN BE SUSTAINED...VERY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND MICROBURSTS.
HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND EXPECTED ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
22Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION INVOF W-CNTRL OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE BORDER...WITH THE
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD TO HASKELL COUNTY TX SWWD TO TERRELL COUNTY
TX. TCU/SMALL CBS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN KNOX/HASKELL
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM/GFS/RUC GUIDANCE DO NOT PRODUCE ANY
QPF ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING...12Z HI-RES WRF-NMM
DOES INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE...MODIFIED 18Z OUN RAOB/RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AREA IS UNCAPPED TO MIXED-LAYER PARCELS. VERY
STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR A WEAK
DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILE /PER JAYTON TX PROFILER/...AND MAY AID
IN THE PRODUCTION OF A FEW SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS.
..GRAMS.. 05/13/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 34259981 34289777 33719775 32819790 31869857 31619915
31649966 31840028 32080054 32830011 34259981
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