SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190107
IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-190230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ORE...FAR SERN WA...NRN ID
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190107Z - 190230Z
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING
WITH SPLITTING SUPERCELLS EVOLVING E/NEWD FROM FAR NERN ORE. LIMITED
SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL MITIGATE A WW ISSUANCE.
AS OF 01Z...RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTED PAIRS OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
OVER NRN WALLOWA COUNTY IN ORE...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS FORMING ALONG
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. MODIFIED 00Z OTX RAOB FOR MIDDLE 80S SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS SUGGESTS MLCAPE SHOULD
BE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50 KT. NEARLY
STRAIGHT-LINE LOW/MID-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT IN RAOB AND VWP DATA
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPLITTING CELL EVOLUTION. 12Z 4-KM WRF-NMM
APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON INITIATION/PLACEMENT OF
ONGOING STORMS AND SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST E/NEWD TOWARDS
THE BITTERROOT MTNS AND WEAKEN WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
UNTIL THAT TIME...SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALTHOUGH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL AID IN STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..GRAMS.. 05/19/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
LAT...LON 47031473 46761417 46141408 45481477 45121626 44971775
45531818 46211790 46791685 47031473
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