SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241517
FLZ000-241615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241517Z - 241615Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE SERN PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS OF MARGINAL HAIL/WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
CU FIELD HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS FL THIS MORNING...WHILE A WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INLAND...PRIMARILY FROM NEAR
TAMPA SWD. ALONG THE EAST COAST...THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
MODIFIED FROM OFFSHORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOT
TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S BEHIND THE OUTFLOW...THE
SEA BREEZE WILL ONLY BE SHORTLY DELAYED. 12Z SOUNDINGS APPEAR VERY
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH -10 TO -11 C AT 500
MB...AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS AMPLE
HEATING ERODES REMAINING CINH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE...WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE PER 12Z SOUNDINGS
COMMON. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT FLOW AND HIGH PWATS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS. MARGINAL
HAIL/WIND AND ISOLD SEVERE CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
..HURLBUT.. 05/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 26768013 25368029 25128073 25608120 26118164 27148215
27638243 28518262 29408294 29728295 30048248 30408187
29898132 28318081 26768013
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