MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0891

ACUS11 KWNS 291908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291907
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NWRN MN...ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291907Z - 292030Z

TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PATCHES OF INCREASINGLY AGITATED
CU/TCU ACROSS NRN/ERN ND INTO N-CNTRL MN. DESPITE A RELATIVELY
ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN...A POTENT IMPULSE /EMBEDDED WITHIN
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA/ WILL PROGRESS S/SEWD AND
SHOULD REACH THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA BY 00Z. ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...WITH 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SURFACE DEW
POINTS. NEVERTHELESS...WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY WARMING THROUGH THE
70S MODIFIED RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL
BE QUITE STEEP THROUGH THE LOW/MID-LEVELS SUPPORTING ROBUST PARCEL
ACCELERATIONS. AROUND 60 KT 500 MB NWLYS WILL LEAD TO STRONG SPEED
SHEAR WITH ELONGATED/NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS. THIS SHOULD
AID IN SPLITTING CELLS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..GRAMS.. 05/29/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 48659394 47979340 47049312 46549350 46189398 45739574
45769647 45859721 46539861 47119940 47929955 48629938
48969821 49059593 49099490 48659394

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