Saturday, May 30, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0898

ACUS11 KWNS 301628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301628
MIZ000-301830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301628Z - 301830Z

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI...

BOUNDARY LAYER IS HEATING RAPIDLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI WITH SFC
READINGS NOW WELL INTO THE 60S...VERY NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
THIS IS SUPPORTED IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY WHERE CU FIELD IS
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF LOWER MI.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW FORMING ALONG COLD
FRONT OVER LAKE MI AND IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE NOTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FARTHER EAST WHERE LAPSE RATES
ARE CONSIDERABLY STEEPER. GIVEN THE VERY COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AT THIS
TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN AOB SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...STRONGLY SHEARED DEEP
WNWLY FLOW REGIME CERTAINLY SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

..DARROW.. 05/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 44108677 45858459 45368195 43028266 42508540 44108677

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