Saturday, May 30, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0900

ACUS11 KWNS 301952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301951
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-302115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/ERN KY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301951Z - 302115Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING BENEATH A FAIRLY COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
...AND 40-50 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH...IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATELY STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RUC
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG...WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION
IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND INITIATION OF STORMS MAY
ALREADY BE UNDERWAY NEAR/EAST OF LOUISVILLE. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT
INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE BEFORE
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
OCCURS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE 23-00Z
TIME FRAME. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT
BEFORE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 05/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 38968506 39028417 38738276 38148167 37178234 36978354
37068445 37338532 37898534 38968506

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