SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302218
KSZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-302345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN WY/CO INTO WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302218Z - 302345Z
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN WY/CO AND WRN KS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED NATURE OF STRONGER/SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM
CENTRAL MO THROUGH CENTRAL KS TO EAST CENTRAL CO...ALONG AND JUST S
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTED A LEE TROUGH IN CO.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500
J/KG/ FROM KS WWD INTO ERN CO....WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXTENDING
NWD INTO WY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
LOW-MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BENEATH STRONGER WLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AT BEST MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /LESS THAN 30
KT/. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MEAN FLOW SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
PULSE AND SLOW MOVING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL...WHILE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /30-40 DEGREES/...AND DCAPE 1000-1500
J/KG SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..PETERS.. 05/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 37870123 38300253 38520383 38460487 38870519 40160528
40970540 42040598 43030623 43780629 44040607 43700517
42950440 42180392 41150383 40350369 39820298 39340067
38840033 38340009 37870123
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