SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302301
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-310000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL...WRN/SRN IND...SW OH...NRN/ERN KY AND
CENTRAL/SRN WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316...
VALID 302301Z - 310000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316
CONTINUES.
A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH OF WW 316 FROM PARTS OF NERN IL
INTO CENTRAL IND. HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT
SUGGESTS OVERALL COVERAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE LOW AND
PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. IF STORMS SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY...THEN A NEW WW WOULD BE NEEDED.
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NERN IL WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO WEST CENTRAL IL...WHILE
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDED SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SERN IND TO FAR SWRN OH
AND CENTRAL KY.
...IL/IND/SW OH/NORTH CENTRAL KY...
REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED AN INCREASE IN TSTM
COVERAGE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL IL AND ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH NWRN/CENTRAL IND. ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE NW
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ESEWD THROUGH ERN IL/CENTRAL IND TO SW OH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESIDES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...SUFFICIENT SHEAR
/35-45 KT/ NORTH OF THE IND/OH FRONT SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT. WIND
PROFILER AT WLC SHOWED A STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH SUGGESTING A CONTINUED
LIKELIHOOD FOR SPLITTING STORMS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY.
..SOUTH CENTRAL OH/ERN KY/WV...
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE/MCV SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL TSTMS THAT DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS THE
ERN PART OF WW 316...LOCAL WFO EXTENSION OF THIS WATCH IS POSSIBLE
INTO THE REST OF SRN WV.
..PETERS.. 05/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38348947 38769041 40129061 40668934 41308820 41248719
40568560 40118470 39678422 39048235 38648107 38048059
37298124 37058214 38348947
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