MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0906

ACUS11 KWNS 311849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311848
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-312045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINA/VIRGINIA PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 311848Z - 312045Z

THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.

ALTHOUGH SUPPRESSED BY GENERALLY SUBSIDENT FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN
UPPER IMPULSE NOW MIGRATING EAST OF COASTAL AREAS...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN RESPONSE TO DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IT APPEARS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL
COOLING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE SUBTLE UPSTREAM WAVE MAY BE
CONTRIBUTING TO THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD INTENSIFY WITHIN A
BROAD...BUT PERHAPS SHARPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH...ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME...IN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SIZABLE LOWER/MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHILE CURRENTLY SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
SHORT-LIVED MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...APPEARS TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF WEAKENING...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AS THEY
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/31/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35378102 35848018 36427945 37247910 37797855 38457778
38407735 38067664 36437674 35177775 34247915 33588025
33308084 33398173 34578193 35378102

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