SWODY1
SPC AC 231628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL...
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION WITH VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ALREADY IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ATOP COOL-SIDE
OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. SEVERAL STRONG/SEVERE COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE...WITH ONGOING SYSTEM ALONG AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT
OVERSPREADING NWRN MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON /REFERENCE WW 497 AND
ATTENDANT DISCUSSIONS TODAY/. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
WITH SYSTEM NEARER WARM FRONT OVER SRN MN/NRN IA GIVEN EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT...WITH SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT
POSSIBLY OVERSPREADING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SUBTLE IMPULSES LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO ADDITIONAL MCSS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RISK
WITH SEVERE MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY OF THESE COMPLEXES.
...CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST INTO FL...
PRIMARY MCS HAS EXITED SOUTH FL AS OF 16Z...ALTHOUGH TRAILING
OUTFLOW/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT
SWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF S FL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ASCENT/MID LEVEL MOISTENING EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
SPREADING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY WITH
STRONG HEATING. ISOLATED WIND/HAIL NEAR OR JUST EXCEEDING SEVERE
LIMITS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES.
...SRN ROCKIES...
PLUME OF GREATER PW/S WILL PERSIST ALONG EDGE OF LARGE SCALE RIDGE
WITHIN SLY FLOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AND AN
ISOLATED STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE GUST MAY ACCOMPANY MORE ROBUST
CORES INTO THE EVENING.
..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/23/2009
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