SWODY2
SPC AC 081728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SRN NY/NRN PA
SWD INTO DELMARVA...
....SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD WITH NRN STREAM FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND SRN STREAM FROM BAJA INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE THAT ONE IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NRN STREAM WILL MOVE THROUGH NY/PA... WHILE A
SRN STREAM IMPULSE SPREADS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NRN SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT EWD INTO THE NERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...BUT THE
WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN
AR WNWWD INTO FAR SRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER WAVE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAK CYCLOGENESIS NEAR
THE FRONT IN WRN KS.
...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF FRONT IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER WRN KS DURING THE MORNING.
SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...GIVEN MUCAPES AROUND
2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-50 KT. MODELS MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL
FORCING/CONVECTION ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY THROUGH KS AND INTO THE
OZARKS...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY ELEVATED SEVERE CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF SO...THESE
STORMS WOULD INGEST A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS MLCAPES REACH
2500-3000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH STRONGLY VEERING
WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3 KM AND 40-45 KT WLY MID LEVEL
WINDS...WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
ALSO...STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWEST KM PLUS LOCALLY
ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT SUGGESTS TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL INCREASE SELY UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW/FRONT IN WRN KS. THIS SHOULD
AID IN WEAKENING CAP AND ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR A LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES
THAN IN SERN KS.
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NEB TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BE SEVERE ACROSS KS AND SRN NEB.
...SRN NY/NRN PA SWD INTO THE DELMARVA...
CONVECTION OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR BY MID MORNING AND COMBINATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...
STRONG HEATING AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG SRN NY/NRN PA TO 3000 J/KG
DELMARVA. UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT
FOR SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS NY/PA...AND WHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS DELMARVA...VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALSO
ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL ROTATION AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WINDS.
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...
STRONG INSTABILITY AND 20-30 KT SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS AND LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE ATTM.
..IMY.. 06/08/2009
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