SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021731
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-021900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST PA/SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021731Z - 021900Z
SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
PA/SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA VICINITY. MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL
TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA APPEARS TO BE CROSSING PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND ALONG A WSW-ENE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...A MODEST UPSWING IN DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
NOTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTIVE HAS NOT BEEN DEEP ENOUGH YET TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING AS OF
1715Z. OTHER CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO EASTERN WV/WESTERN VA.
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...AMPLE INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO AGGRESSIVELY WARM THROUGH THE 80S F ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
PA/SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA VICINITY...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE STRONGEST
WESTERLIES ALOFT ARE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...HOWEVER RELATIVELY
STRONG FLOW AROUND/ABOVE 3 KM PER WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM
STERLING/DOVER WOULD SUPPORT WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/PERHAPS EVEN
A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A WARM/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
..GUYER.. 06/02/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 37507605 38227825 40197737 40097421 37507605
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