SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031612
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-031745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EXTREME SRN OH...AND NE KY INTO W VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031612Z - 031745Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
A CLUSTER OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION...NOW APPROACHING THE HUNTINGTON
WV AREA...APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE A SLOW EAST
NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RECENT
TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY BE AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY WEAKENING...WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
DESTABILIZATION IS NOW UNDERWAY AHEAD OF ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AND...NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN OHIO.
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CAPE WITHIN A 20-30
KT DEEP LAYER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW AND SHEAR PROBABLY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL BETWEEN 18-21Z ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
A LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.
..KERR.. 06/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 39228294 39488235 39718088 39647985 39007957 38198048
37908180 37708233 37428325 37578421 38178380 38568325
38958321 39228294
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