SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031641
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-031745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD...WRN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 031641Z - 031745Z
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME
FRAME. A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF REGION SHORTLY.
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN IN THE
NEAR TERM. BUT...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS WELL UNDERWAY ALONG AND TO THE LEE
OF THE ALLEGHENY AND BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INHIBITION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE...WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPE ALREADY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE
HEATING...INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. WHILE THIS
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS FAR SOUTH AS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...A BELT OF 20-30 KT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR NEAR A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY NORTH NORTHEAST OF ROANOKE
THROUGH THE WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE MD METROPOLITAN AREAS.
..KERR.. 06/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 36828068 37727962 38907840 39297784 39297645 38847597
38057648 37497768 35228122 35508212 36828068
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