Thursday, June 4, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0948

ACUS11 KWNS 042027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042026
TXZ000-NMZ000-042130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042026Z - 042130Z

A VERY ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY ENSUE ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM INTO
SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS DEVELOPING STORMS MOVING SEWD OFF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH ANOTHER STORM LOCATED OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS IN SWRN TX. DESPITE THE REGION BEING LOCATED APPRECIABLY
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...25 KT H5 FLOW OVERTOP UPSLOPE SELY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL ADEQUATELY AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION WITH 35 KTS
0-6 KM SHEAR. 12Z MAF RAOB DISPLAYED HIGHER QUALITY MOIST LAYER
THROUGH 850 MB WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1 INCH. MOST RECENT
GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVATION IN SERN NM DEPICTED A SIMILAR
QUALITY AIRMASS IN PLACE FURTHER W...IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST GOES
SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA. MODIFYING THE 12Z MAB RAOB FOR
UPPER 80S TEMP OVER LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINT--YIELDS MODERATE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE/. AS SUCH...EXPECTING
STORMS TO EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE SEWD...POSING AN ISOLD
LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TIME. DUE TO MODEL GUIDANCE AND
EXPECTED SPARSE STORM COVERAGE WITH VERY LIMITED SUPPORT ALOFT...THE
CORRESPONDING SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY ISOLD WITH A WW
ISSUANCE UNLIKELY.

..SMITH.. 06/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 30420437 32720520 34140550 34360530 34120463 32880333
31990307 30130317 30020351 30110395 30420437

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